Early Access: A Games-Exclusive Paradigm Shift

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Welcome back, and Happy New Year from both of us here at Fandom Forecast! As we recover from whatever virus seems to have gotten everyone else we know sick, we'd like to wish all of you a safe and fulfilling 2026!

On New Years Day, I had the thought of compiling a list of the most anticipated games of this upcoming year. That'd be a nice way to start the year, I thought, and would give an, at least, decent impression of what's to come. There's a great deal to look forward to this year in the games industry, that much is certain.

Ultimately, I decided against that. Not just because this industry is absolutely massive and caters to innumerable preferences, styles, and tastes. Not just because, quite often, the most successful titles arrive out of thin air. Not just because, inevitably, the conversation will shift to Rockstar Games' Grand Theft Auto VI.

Yes, we'll eventually talk a bit about GTA 6—but no, for the most part, I'd like to tell a different story.

I was feeling motivated on New Year's Day, and opened up a game project I've been working on for some time. I decided it was time to add that new feature I've been procrastinating getting started on since the holiday season began. By the evening, the feature was implemented successfully, and I smiled proudly as I showed Maddy that I could now walk into and out of a building.

She complemented how far it's come along, which is always nice to hear because she really has watched this project develop from the beginning.

Then, she asked me that most haunting of haunting questions.

"When do you think it will be done?"

Lightning flashed. Thunder boomed.

"Years," I said without hesitation, looking over the vast empty map in my Unity project.

"...Years."

But then, I thought, that's not entirely true. In today's games industry, being 'done' with a project isn't the same as being 'ready to play'. Maybe the answer is a bit more complicated. Maybe the question should be, when will it be ready to play?

Well I guess the answer is still years.

When I look over the list of games I've played this year, one thing becomes pretty clear: a growing percentage of them are not finished. These are games that have been available to purchase for months or even years, are successful both critically and financially, and technically, they are not done.

Today, we're going to talk about early access, and how it is very effectively shaping this industry.

Early access isn't anything new, and that won't be the takeaway of today's article. Rather, it's a practice that is clearly expanding, with results ranging from award-winning (like the above Hades 2 by Supergiant) to downright disappointing.

To the non-gamer, early access is when the developers of an unfinished game release a (hopefully) stable-enough version of said game to the market. Oftentimes, this early access version will cost a fraction of the $70 price tag for most AAA games, while providing players with an early preview of what's to come. Effectively, this serves both the developers, who are gaining valuable feedback from these releases, and the players, who are getting to experience this game sooner rather than later.

Importantly, this practice seems to be most prominent within the 'independent' game market, serving as a form of late-stage play-testing for developers who may not have access to office campuses full of QA testers, analysts, and the like. Even for the larger studios that do have access to some of those resources, it becomes a vital tool in the development process, as stated by the team behind Hades 2.

The success of early access speaks for itself. Hades 2 received a great deal of critical praise, was awarded for Best Action Game at the 2025 Video Game Awards, and continues to be the top PC game of 2025 on Metacritic. Despite being an unfinished, yet 'playable enough' game, Hades 2 sold over 2 million copies and generated over $50 million while in early access. I was one of those 2 million players, and effectively had a front row seat to watching a masterpiece be made.

Getting to be part of the development of a great game early on, and watching it come together piece by piece...to me, that is one of the best aspects of being part of the modern gaming community. While TV shows, films, and music albums certainly have previews, trailers, and behind the scenes content, most of us don't get to be so immersed in the creation of said works of art. This is something unique to the field of video games.

And yet, if there is one other thing I'm even further grateful to early access gaming for, it's how it's created an environment for stranger, more original ideas to find success.

Admittedly, Hades 2 isn't exactly a no-name in the game market. Its predecessor, Hades, saw comparable success in both early access and release back in 2019 and 2020 respectively, making both titles more or less the poster children of early access gaming. Moreover, games similar in style to the first Hades have only gained popularity, so it's worth mentioning that the success of the sequel was no mere fluke.

But now that any developer can release their games to the market so much earlier, they can also understand just how popular their game as an original concept really is. Take Schedule I, a drug dealer simulator that has sold 8 million copies since its early access release in March. This game was made by Tyler's Game Studio—literally one guy in Australia named Tyler—which now has a total of 4 developers.

This game has made over $100 million.

And why shouldn't it? I'd happily go out on a limb and say that there is nothing like Schedule I. Many a reviewer have jokingly called this the Breaking Bad simulator, and I completely agree. And yet, the list of great aspects of this game goes far beyond the gimmicky impression it may give off, boasting a broad list of gamified mundane tasks, an intricate system of civilians that feels alive, and a grungy yet surprisingly cozy atmosphere that altogether make it worth coming back to.

The list goes on for games I've had the privilege to play thanks to early access, including several I was quite late to the party for. This year, I discovered Youthcat Studio's Dyson Sphere Program, a factory-building game set in space that's been in early access for 4 years, and The Indie Stone's Project Zomboid, a zombie apocalypse simulator entering its 12th year of early access. Both of these games are well known for their level of polish, accessibility, and complexity, with the latter often being called the most realistic zombie survival game ever created.

Yet somehow, they remain unfinished.

I can hear my mother asking "what's the point of not finishing it for so long?", and I think I have an answer. (also, hi Mom)

In all forms of art, the artist attempts to capture some kind of experience, be it real or fantasy. Whether it's grief, slaying a monster, or something as simple as drinking an ice cold beer, there is some kind of art associated...attempting to capture those very same experiences. With video games, the developer makes those same attempts, but with the added challenge of making it fully interactive. There's a vision for what this experience should be, how it should feel to the player, and there are leagues of developers dedicated to making their game that experience, no matter how much time it takes.

Having played many hours of Project Zomboid, I can attest that there are few other games with the same level of dedication and detail as this zombie nightmare, and that there is no other game, film or TV show that makes me experience a zombie apocalypse quite like this.

In it, you create a typical human being with typical human strengths (such as being a fast reader) balanced out by typical human weaknesses (such as having claustrophobia). Your human is then randomly spawned into a massive map of Knoxville, TN, where you are given total freedom to confront the zombie apocalypse however you want. Whether you're skulking house by house for supplies, scoping out an abandoned farmhouse, or scouring the road for a working car to hot-wire, every single choice and hesitation matters. Any mistake, any at all, can end with an entire horde of zombies chasing you to your inevitable demise. When your character dies, they are dead. No autosaves, no checkpoints, no file reloads. No, you lose that character forever, losing hours, days, even months of progress—only to start over again.

I have felt very real dread and panic while playing this, and all of it is thanks to the highly advanced system behind this game, painstakingly crafted for over a decade and counting. It's the breadth of details that truly make this game an outlier, with particular attention to real-life qualms and very plausible zombie outbreak consequences. Your character will get hungry, tired, and even depressed. Making noise attracts not one, but many zombies. After several days in-game, the water shuts off. Then, eventually, the power grid goes, and if your character happens to make it that far, you must adapt...

All of these details combine to elevate Project Zomboid from 'just another zombie game' to one of the most immersive games on the market, and it's only continuing to grow. Yes, it is still in early access, but because of this long period of late-stage development, it's been allowed to grow in complexity and detail, and has already solidified itself as a top-tier game in both the horror and simulator categories.

Conversely, there also exist games, particularly in the indie space, which get critiqued for releasing without early access. Coincidentally, a few days ago, another zombie game by the name of Quarantine Zone made a splash upon its January 12th release, gaining a solid 30,000 players within 24 hours. Developed by Brigada Games and published by well-acclaimed Devolver Digital, this game has the player screen civilians who are possibly infected with a zombie virus, using a variety of tools to make the right choice. However, in just the few days since, that volume of players almost halved, with most negative reviews citing a lack of early access testing as their reason for it falling short of expectations.

Yes, early access serves as an invaluable resource to those who need it. Yes, it's great to play games early and watch them come together piece by piece. Yes, an unfinished game can receive millions in profits. But as always, the story is not all sunshine and rainbows.

Fundamentally, I think the most important function of early access is that it provides players with a satisfying experience that makes them more interested in the full game, because when it fails to do so, the cracks in the foundations become only more noticeable.

Last month, when I wrote about the Video Game Awards, I kicked myself because, on that very same day, Grinding Gear Games' Path of Exile 2 released a major expansion of content. This surged Path of Exile 2, another early access game, right to the 3rd place spot where I had reported ARC Raiders had been maintaining position—gaining nearly 300,000 players, of which I was one.

When I wrote that Blue Prince was my top-played game of the year, I may have lied in terms of overall hours...so, needless to say, I am a fan. The massive-multiplayer-online (or MMO in gamer lingo) launched into early access in December 2024, garnering half a million players in its first week alone. Since then, it has seen respective spikes in players for each of its three expansion updates, but the pattern is not reassuring. That increase in player count has steadily declined with each update, and its Steam Recent Reviews has now shifted from Mostly Positive to Mixed, a sign of broad discontent. For a game to be this far into early access and to decline in player interest as much as it has is, to say the least, concerning. The game still has to be finished.

The reason for this decline? That's a bit of a loaded question, but I would say a large portion of it is exhaustion. See, while Path of Exile 2 is unfinished, there is still a significant chunk of game to play. However, crucially, each new expansion forces you to start over, meaning a recurrent player will end up going through the same incomplete game not once, but many times.

This isn't anything new or unique, as many in-development games require you to start over a file during large updates so that significant changes can be properly implemented. Grinding Gear's biggest challenge, then, is to bring something refreshing and innovative enough to each expansion to maintain intrigue and keep players coming back to play the same 10+ hours of Path of Exile 2, until it's eventually finished.

But that hasn't exactly been the case, as suggested by the most recent drop in positive reviews and player count. Even more concerning is the fact that this most recent update promised to rework a great deal of preexisting content, yet clearly these changes have not been substantial enough to maintain a the same level of interest.

This, to me, is one of the most notable challenges to early access gaming. As lucrative as it may seem, early access can actually wane the interest of a game's release in some cases. I believe this is heavily dependent on whether or not the gameplay loop—the typical experience of a play session—is satisfying enough to come back to over time. A game like Path of Exile 2, which has a very dense 10+ hours of story to play through, may have greatly benefited with more time to cook in the oven prior to its early access release, or perhaps with less frequent, more substantial updates.

And yet, it's worth noting that Path of Exile 2 still maintains a substantial volume of active players—around 50,000 as I write this—despite its drop in reception. Like other MMO giants in the business (e.g. Warframe, World of Warcraft), Path of Exile has a massive community, so this number isn't entirely surprising. Nevertheless, there seems to be a clear drop in interest.

Compare this to our old friend Schedule I, also still in early access. While largely successful, Schedule I hasn't achieved nearly the same peak player numbers as Path of Exile 2. Critically, however, it has achieved both positive reception and a consistent recurrent player base throughout its early access development. Where Path of Exile 2 has spiked and subsequently dropped in player count, Schedule I has mostly plateaued over the course of its early access. Despite Path of Exile 2 having more impressive player count numbers, all sources point to Schedule I beating out Path of Exile 2 in ownership—meaning less refunds and more permanent players—by over a million users.

Interestingly, despite its massive (and warranted) critical acclaim, Hades 2 similarly dipped in players during early access. In May 2024, when it released into early access, the Supergiant masterpiece peaked at over 100,000 new players. Hades 2 had 3 major updates prior to its full release last September, and while there were small spikes at those times, it never quite reached even a fifth of that original player count during early access. Sure, it sold 2 million copies over the course of that time, but clearly there was, at some point, a stall in interest.

So what's really happening? Why do some games succeed better than others in early access? What is the point of all this yammering?!

To my earlier point, I believe that some gameplay loops are far better suited for early access than others. Schedule I's gameplay loop is a good example of this; being a less dense and more creative, sandbox experience that continues to grow. Although a much smaller game, the updates to Schedule I have felt more substantial, more worthwhile to come back to.

On the other hand, games like Hades 2 and Path of Exile 2, while incredible works of art in their own right, are mostly story-driven. To play any game like this in early access is to play an incomplete story. Hades 2 had, in my opinion, the right idea: drip-feeding the story over many hours of gameplay, permanently retaining your progress, and adding exciting new chapters with each major update. But in the case of Path of Exile 2, that same incomplete story has had to be played over and over again each update, only once adding a new chapter within the last year.

Clearly, there exist enough players who have a hard time returning to a story they know they cannot finish, or must experience repetitively. With the broad spectrum of tastes and quirks available within the space of gaming, it seems only natural that some types of games are more successful in early access than others.

However, I do not believe early access will become the new standard of the industry as a whole. Within the space of AAA games (that is, games developed by massive studios like Rockstar, Electronic Arts, etc.), early access doesn't even seem to be a consideration. It makes sense, given these are developers with way more resources, marketing teams, and reputation, frankly. Rockstar Games' upcoming Grand Theft Auto VI is currently set to release November of this year, following over a decade of anticipation, and will assuredly make billions of dollars. Its predecessor, GTA V, is one of the most successful entertainment products of all time, having grossed over $10B in revenue since its 2013 release. With other publishers even delaying their upcoming games until after GTA VI's release, it's unthinkable to imagine a game such as GTA VI being in early access, simply because it could never require it. Rockstar's resources aside, a game with such unprecedented levels of anticipation must capitalize on that anticipation.

Overall, I believe that early access has done more good for the gaming industry than bad, and is only growing in prominence. While I've seen others argue that early access is little more than a money-making scheme to finesse gullible players into buying unfinished products, I believe that it serves as a vital resource to a significant portion of developers. It provides broad and thorough testing at that critical point in a game's development when it's 'playable enough' but not quite 'done'. Through it, the gaming market feels larger than ever, as early access has also created a space for lesser-known titles to make an impact months ahead of its completion. Finally, developers have more options than ever when it comes to releasing their work, and as someone who is also trying to make their own game, that's genuinely encouraging!

For my part, it's a good sign to see just how much an original concept can be appreciated by a global audience even if it's very early in development, and how involved we can be in the creative process simply by keeping our mind open, our ears to the ground, and really giving things an honest chance.

Happy new year, and happy gaming.

JTW